Dearest readers,
For those of you who don’t know me, I am but a simple-minded monkey. I have gotten to where I am today by a fairly simple habit. As the youngest of my siblings I have survived and thrived by this simple practice:
Monkey See, Monkey Do
I have the privilege of being the “golden child” in my family with all that accompanies such a distinction with one notable exception: I am not, at least lately, (as far as I can tell), a complete arrogant a***ole.
Humility is coming easier with each passing day.
This, I believe, is the result of my acute awareness that any success (or avoidance of catastrophic failure) is the result of (“luck” and/or) simply following others and either repeating what they do well or avoiding what they do poorly.
With this practice, I have achieved great results and success beyond what I thought possible. In the course of my “monkey see monkey do” life, one pattern has become clear:
One hallmark of a bad decision is when a it is based on an expected future change of behavior.
OR
When a decision is made assuming nothing will change.
Two examples make this abundantly clear.
If an alien were to visit Earth, and allowed to tour most middle-class homes, they might draw the conclusion that these houses were kept attached to the Earth not by gravity, but by the weight of a device called a “treadmill” stored somewhere in the home.
Why is buying a treadmill (or any domestic exercise equipment) usually such a bad idea?
It is a bad idea because people believe that a purchase has the power to change behavior (or habits), which is insane.
The idea here is that, once I own a treadmill (or whatever), I will finally develop the behavior or habit of exercise. This is of course backwards thinking.
The solution is to change behavior or develop a habit before making a purchase.
A treadmill or piece of home exercise equipment makes sense only to someone already regularly exercising.
Example two, home buying:
Now to illustrate an example of a decision, which is only a good one, if nothing changes. (Stories abound here.)
A potential home-buyer does the very simple and ill-advised arithmetic of comparing a rent payment to a mortgage payment and decides to buy a house. Often, this will only work out assuming nothing changes: as long as there is no interruption in employment, the roommate never leaves, and nothing in the house requires repair, etc. Unfortunately, these cases are usually clearest in hindsight.
It is a bad decision because it requires nothing to change to work out.
The simple solution here is to assume changes and see if a decision is still a good one.
Okay, what would happen if I had an interruption to my income for a few months…? What would happen if I didn’t have a roommate for a while…? What about a roof, A/C, heating, or other issue within the first few years…?
There are a few “levers” in life: relationships, career, finances, health, etc. It is often a good idea before major changes to “play” with these levers in imaginary situations. There is a low probability of all of them flipping within a short period of time, but the longer the time-frame, the higher the chance of one or more of these levers to moving.
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